The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy

Outlook for nuclear investment

  • Global investment in nuclear energy increases in all three scenarios set out in this report. From around USD 65 billion per year today, investment rises to USD 70 billion per year by 2030 in a scenario reflecting today’s policy settings (the STEPS), putting global nuclear capacity on track to rise by more than 50% to nearly 650 GW by 2050. Nuclear investments could rise more rapidly with stronger government policy interventions. In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), in which all energy and climate policies are met in full and on time, investment hits USD 120 billion in 2030 and nuclear capacity more than doubles by mid‑century. In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, investment exceeds USD 150 billion by 2030 and installed capacity rises above 1 000 GW by 2050.
  • While large reactors are set to capture the majority of nuclear investment, SMRs are poised for rapid growth. In the STEPS, SMR capacity reaches 40 GW in 2050. Stronger government support in the APS sees more than 1 000 SMRs deployed by 2050, with a total capacity of 120 GW. This involves a rise in investment in SMRs from USD 5 billion today to over USD 25 billion in 2030, with cumulative investment of USD 670 billion by 2050.
  • The outlook for nuclear energy and investment differs markedly across regions and countries. In advanced economies, nuclear capacity rises thanks to new plants and lifetime extensions at existing ones; in the APS, capacity jumps by 40% to 2050. China accounts for half of all capacity expansion to 2050, and the size of China’s nuclear fleet overtakes that of the United States by 2030 to become the largest in the world. In other markets, nuclear grows more rapidly after 2035, reaching 25% of global nuclear capacity by 2050 in the APS.
  • Advanced economies have the opportunity to take a larger part of the nuclear market. The share of new large-scale nuclear projects using their designs rises from less than 10% in recent years to 40% by 2030 and over half thereafter in the APS, thanks to new construction starts in Europe, the United States and Japan. Widespread deployment of SMRs could accelerate the shift in market leadership, with over 60% of new construction starts to 2050 in the APS using designs from the United States or Europe.
  • Expanding and diversifying nuclear supply chains, including investment in a larger qualified workforce, will be key to making nuclear energy secure and affordable. Uranium production is highly concentrated in four countries, with Kazakhstan accounting for 43%. Enrichment capacities are also concentrated in only four suppliers. Several countries have introduced policy measures to promote greater diversity of nuclear fuels supply, and various projects are in development.
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