Indian Oil Market

Healthy economic expansion, combined with dynamic population, urbanisation and industrialisation growth, will see India’s role in global oil markets rapidly increase towards 2030, with significant implications for its oil trade balances, climate ambitions and energy security goals. As energy transitions gather pace and China’s economy shifts gear towards a less energy-intensive phase, India will assume the position as the world’s largest source of oil demand growth this decade. In our 2023-2030 forecast period, India accounts for more than one-third of global oil demand growth.

The Report looks in-depth at how India’s role on the global oil market may evolve over the period through to 2030. It examines investment plans for the refining and petrochemical industry and how these developments may impact Indian crude and product net trade. The Report looks at energy transition trends that may affect the demand for oil in different sectors and how these changes could impact the country’s energy security.

The Report extends and updates the forecast horizon for India from the Oil 2023 medium-term market report published in June 2023. The forecast levels of oil demand in 2030 are lower than those projected for India in the Stated Policies Scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2023 (WEO-2023), which was published in October 2023 and reflects the policy settings of governments worldwide, but they are above those in the WEO-2023’s Announced Pledges Scenario, which maps out a pathway to meeting all countries’ national energy and climate goals such as India’s pledge to reach net zero emissions by 2070. The Report’s analysis highlights the important structural changes that are underway in India’s energy sector and the need for India, as in other countries, to accelerate the pace of change to get on track for national energy and climate goals and the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.