Each year the IEA publishes reports forecasting market trends and developments for the next five years concerning the primary energy sources for global markets: oil, coal, gas and renewables. The 2013 editions begin with the London launch of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report, on 14 May, followed by the Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report and the Medium-Term Gas Market Report, with the Medium-Term Coal Market Report closing out the year.
The series aims to contribute to market transparency through a comprehensive analysis of the recent trends and future prospects in terms of global demand, supply, processing and trade for oil, coal and gas as well as analysing the current drivers and barriers influencing deployment of renewable energy worldwide. The series examines planned investment in new capacity and infrastructure, highlighting potential market pressures for the 2013-2018 period. Trends in price formation and inter-fuel substitution potential are also covered.
The medium-term reports, although published at different times of the year, are also consistent in terms of broad economic, price and policy assumptions, providing an integrated view of energy development over the medium term.
The 2012 releases capped the success over the previous five years of the medium-term reports covering oil and gas. The release of the series was also spread through that year, following the December 2011 release of the first Medium-Term Coal Market Report. In June 2012 came the Medium-Term Gas Market Report, followed in July by the Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report and in October by the Medium-Term Oil Market Report. The cycle concluded in December with the release of the second Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
The oil market has been buffeted by supply shortfalls, from Libya in 2011 and Iran in 2012 to a swathe of unplanned non-OPEC output stoppages. Prices have tested 2008 highs, re-igniting debate on price formation and the role of speculation in fuelling volatility. And despite concerns about the health of the OECD economies, robust global demand growth is supported by the insatiable appetite of emerging market consumers. However, amid a shift towards ever-cleaner fuels, the refining industry, notably in Europe, confronts serious challenges of surplus capacity, gasoline-diesel imbalance, and a glut of light-sweet crude oil feedstocks, placing upgrading economics in question.
The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) – companion to the authoritative monthly OMR – takes a step back from short-term swings in supply, demand, stocks, margins and prices to put recent developments in context. It provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, demand by key product, refined product output and upstream and downstream investments through 2018. It examines oil price formation, regulatory changes and the degree to which new OPEC capacity investment will keep up with surging demand growth in China, India and the Middle East.
OPEC internal dynamics are reviewed, so too the contribution of burgeoning new supplies from deepwater, oil shale, biofuels and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The complex demand-side interactions between income, price and inter-fuel substitution are examined, all within the coherent analytical framework developed over the last 30 years in the OMR. MTOMR is essential reading for anyone interested in oil market dynamics and the adequacy of today’s investments for satisfying future demand. Medium Term Oil Market Report 2013 will go on sale at the IEA bookshop on 14 May.
Renewable energy has emerged as a significant source in the global energy mix, accounting for around a fifth of worldwide electricity production. Much of this success has stemmed from economic incentives and significant policy effort by countries, particularly those in the OECD. Massive investment has taken place on a global scale, with costs for most technologies falling steadily. As a result, renewable energy technologies are becoming more economically attractive in an increasing range of countries and circumstances, with China, India and Brazil emerging as leaders in deployment.
While renewable energy has been the fastest growing sector of the energy mix in percentage terms, its continued growth will depend upon the evolution of policy and market frameworks. Further technology development, grid and system integration issues and the availability of finance will also weigh as key variables.
This new annual IEA publication, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report, provides a key benchmark, assessing the current state of play of renewable energy, identifying the main drivers and barriers to deployment and projecting renewable energy electricity capacity and generation through 2017. Starting with an in-depth analysis of key country-level markets, which represent 80% of renewable electricity generation today, the report examines the prospects for renewable energy finance and provides a global outlook for each renewable electricity technology. The report analyses enablers and barriers to renewable energy deployment in detail, examining larger electricity market issues that have implications for renewable development, including country-level demand projections, anticipated changes in conventional generating capacity and power system integration.
The 2013 edition of Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report will be available soon at the IEA bookshop.
With ample recoverable resources, natural gas seems destined for a bright future. It nevertheless faces many challenges to increase its share in the primary energy mix, including insufficient upstream development, inadequate pricing structure, competition from other fuels, and geopolitical issues.
The IEA Medium-Term Gas Market Report reviews how gas markets have managed recent challenges, from the consequences of the Fukushima incident to the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa to a further deteriorating economy. It gives detailed five-year forecasts for gas supply, demand and trade, by region as well as for key countries, while investigating many of today’s crucial questions:
• Will regional gas markets diverge further or will the shale gas revolution spread worldwide?
• Will North America become a significant LNG exporter?
• Can China meet its goal of doubling gas consumption in four years?
• Will natural gas replace nuclear energy in key OECD member countries?
• Can gas finally overtake coal in the US power sector?
• Can a spot price emerge in Asia?
Amid a fragile economy and widely diverging regional gas prices, the report provides an in-depth look at future changes in trade patterns as markets absorb a second wave of LNG supply. Medium-Term Gas Market Report tests the upper limit of gas demand in the United States, analyses European gas consumption’s struggle to recover, and assesses the potential of new suppliers.
The 2012 of Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report is currently on sale at the IEA bookshop and the 2013 edition will be available soon.
Despite public calls in many countries for reducing reliance on coal as a primary but high-carbon energy source, global demand continues to escalate: by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’s top energy source. In that period, coal demand will increase in every region of the world except in the United States, where coal is being pushed out by natural gas
The world will burn around 1.2 billion more tonnes of coal per year by 2017 compared to today – equivalent to the current coal consumption of Russia and the United States combined. This second annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report from the IEA presents a comprehensive analysis of recent trends in coal demand, supply and trade, as well as an IEA outlook for coal market fundamentals for the coming five years. The report places a special focus on trade and infrastructure development in the key exporting countries.
China and India lead the growth in coal consumption over the next five years. The report saysChina will surpass the rest of the world in coal demand during the outlook period, while India will become the largest seaborne coal importer and second-largest consumer, surpassing the United States.
The Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 Factsheet
“How to fix the 21st Century’s dirty engine of growth” – a Huffington Post commentary by IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven
Slides featuring data from Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012
Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2013 will be available at the IEA bookshop towards the end of the year.