Speaking at the “Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan-2009" conference in Ashgabat, IEA Deputy Executive Director Richard Jones said the Agency’s member countries, most of which are Western European nations, were keen to secure Turkmen supplies. "Gas from the Caspian region in general and Turkmenistan in particular… will be very much needed in Europe". The conference mainly focused on the prospects for implementing the EU-backed Nabucco pipeline project, in which Turkmenistan will be the main supplier of gas.

The IEA November Oil Market Report warned that the recent spike in oil prices could derail the global economic recovery. David Fyfe, head of the IEA Oil Industry and Markets Division, said “If prices keep rebounding, there’s a risk to the global economy as a whole, even to some of those economies in the Far East and even the Middle East.”

At the launch of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 in London, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka emphasised the importance of reaching a global agreement at the UN Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen in December. Mr. Tanaka said “A deal at Copenhagen is vital. Governments must reach clear agreements to improve efficiency and develop alternative forms of energy…”

Commenting on technology transfer for advancing sustainable energy in developing countries - the likely focus of the debate at the climate conference in Copenhagen in December and at the World Future Energy Summit (in January 2010) - IEA Deputy Executive Director Richard Jones is quoted as saying: “To meet growing global energy demand, we need to make sure that we have adequate and sustainable energy supplies. We will need all sources, but our big challenge will be minimising the environmental impact from their production and use. Development and deployment of low-carbon technologies will be central to this effort.” (In recognition of this, IEA energy ministers at their meeting on 14-15 October gave a green light to the Agency to continue developing ideas for a low-carbon energy technology platform which will assist IEA partner countries in developing their own energy technology plans.)

The new IEA publication, Chile Energy Policy Review 2009, commended Chile’s push to develop renewable resources, but said the country may not be moving fast enough. IEA Programme Manager for Latin America Ghislaine Kieffer said that over 12 gigawatts of non-conventional, renewable capacity could be developed with current technology, adding that some estimates show a much higher potential.

Presenting the new report Implementing Energy Efficiency Policies: Are IEA Member Countries on Track? at the IEA Ministerial meeting in Paris, Senior Energy Analyst Nigel Jollands called for “urgent” steps to enhance the performance among member countries. The study analyses to what degree IEA member countries have implemented the Agency’s 25 energy efficiency recommendations to the G8 which – if implemented globally - could reduce carbon emissions by 8.2 gigatonnes per year by 2030. “We are only in second gear”, said Jollands. “There is a hell of a lot more potential to draw from out there.''

Launching the new IEA Scoreboard 2009 at the International Energy Agency’s Ministerial meeting, the Head of the IEA Statistics Division Jean-Yves Garnier said energy efficiency was one of the key issues to reduce energy consumption and curb greenhouse gas emissions. He announced the International Energy Agency would ask its member countries to provide annual information about the efficiency of their energy use.

Briefing reporters at the IEA Ministerial in Paris, the Agency’s Chief Economist Fatih Birol said that a peak in fossil fuel demand will depend on the agreement reached at the Copenhagen climate change summit. “If we say that the 450 ppm scenario works out, fossil fuel demand altogether will peak around 2020,” said Dr. Birol, referring to a target to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at 450 parts per million of CO2 equivalent.

An agreement by the G20 to eliminate subsidies on oil and other fossil fuels to fight climate change would be good news and should not take too long to be implemented, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told Reuters. “This will improve energy efficiency and therefore energy security, lifting the burden on governments' budgets and reducing carbon dioxide emissions,” he said and estimated that in some countries “it can take five to six years depending on the level of subsidies and the sensitivities.” The IEA estimates non-OECD countries pay USD 310 billion in fossil fuel subsidies with about half of that going to oil products.

Reporting on the forthcoming IEA study on climate change to be published in Bangkok 6 October, an early excerpt of the World Energy Outlook 2009, the newspaper quotes the Agency’s Chief Economist Fatih Birol as saying that the financial crisis will lead to a “surprising” and “significant decline” in greenhouse gas emissions this year. “We have a new situation, with the changes in energy demand and the postponement of many energy investments,” he said and added: “But this only has meaning if we can make use of this unique window of opportunity. (That means) a deal in Copenhagen,” at the UN climate change conference in December.

Energy-efficiency measures are good for energy security
Noting that the developing world may represent a “second wave” to the energy-efficiency boom started the past few years in developed nations like the U.S. , IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said “Many emerging markets are starting to realise energy-efficiency measures make sense from the standpoint of energy security, limiting the impact of high oil prices and fighting pollution.”

Attending a conference in Bangkok, IEA Deputy Executive Director Richard Jones said “the future is bright for biofuels. It will take a big chunk of declining production of conventional oil.” IEA oil market analyst Michael Waldron added, “despite new industry hardships, we still expect strong biofuels supply growth through 2014.”

Speaking on Russia’s contribution to the fight against global climate change and the country’s renewable energy potential, Isabel Murray, IEA Russia Programme Manager, said “Russia has so much in terms of oil and gas resources, it’s hard to focus on the renewables”. However, she added, that was slowly about to change. Developing energy efficiency and alternative energy sources would also be consistent with Russia’s goal of increasing fossil fuel exports. “In the end, if they use more renewables domestically, they can export more” fossil fuels, Murray said.

In response to the G8 declaration, the International Energy Agency issued a statement welcoming the G8 call for increased energy investment. IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said, “This is a step in the right direction. But, much more needs to be done; investment in energy efficiency and clean technologies would need to increase fourfold if we want to keep the rise in global average temperature under 2 degrees Celsius. This means $400 billion more every year over the next 20 years." He added that energy efficiency policy was where individual governments could "truly make a difference."

IEA warns of overhang in oil refining capacity
In its Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2009, the IEA warned that additions to global refining capacity in coming years are likely to create a substantial overhang and could prompt some refineries to close. In view of a weak oil demand, the Head of the IEA Oil Markets Division David Fyfe believes that weaker utilisation rates would cause “a real squeeze” on refineries in OECD countries. “We seem to be heading back into boom and bust in the refining sector”.

Europe needs easier gas flow
Referring to the remaining tensions between Russia and Ukraine over gas deliveries, Ian Cronshaw, Head of the IEA Energy Diversification Division, recommended an improved European gas network as a way to limit the impact of potential supply disruption. In a Reuters interview, he said: “In North America gas moves freely and quickly, but it’s not the case in Europe.” Despite a new contract between Russian gas exporter Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz, the difficult economic situation in Ukraine makes every monthly payment a challenge; the IEA is therefore concerned about a possible interruption in Europe’s gas supply.

IEA sees slight increase in 2009 oil demand
Referring to the slight upward revision of the oil demand forecast in the June IEA Oil Market Report, the Wall Street Journal quotes David Fyfe, head of the IEA Oil Industry and Markets division, as saying, “It’s a fairly modest revision.” […] “Some first and second quarter [macroeconomic] data is slightly healthier than we expected, but it’s still very early days”. In its report the IEA projects global crude demand this year to rise by 120,000 mbd to 83.3 mbd, an increase signalling hope but not necessarily implying the beginning of a global economic recovery.

IEA calls for more renewable energy funding
Speaking of the current economic stimulus packages, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said that they were an “important step” but “insufficient to get us over the line to a cleaner more sustainable energy future”. He added that “the IEA is [.] calling for governments worldwide to truly embrace a new clean energy deal”. Tanaka said that renewable power generation had to more than double its share in total electricity supply to 40 percent by 2030, to help keep CO2 emissions levels below the generally agreed upon goal of 450ppm in the long term. The IEA estimates that only about USD 20 billion out of USD 2.6 trillion announced by the G20 countries will go to renewable power.

21-percent slide in energy investment in 2009
As a consequence of the world wide economic crisis, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol predicts a significant investment decline in the global energy sector. “Our calculations show that investment in oil and gas exploration in 2009 will drop by 21 percent from 2008, that is by USD 100 billion.” He reiterated that oil prices could surge back to the record high of summer 2008 once the economy recovers and energy demand increases, leading to supply lags as a result of insufficient capacity.

More energy efficiency needed to improve gas security
In view of continuing spats between Ukraine and Russia over natural gas contracts, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka advised consuming countries in Europe to take steps to confront the supply insecurity risk. “IEA member countries should have (.) many possible alternatives, invest into energy efficiency and diversify sources of transmission.” Gas security will be a topic on the agenda at the IEA ministerial meeting in October 2009.