IEA Studies

Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Studies
Subject: Oil

Subscribers to the monthly Oil Market Report get free access to the PDF version of this publication. You can subscribe to the Oil Market Report through the following link: http://www.iea.org/w/omrss/default.aspx
To purchase the Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013 separately please place your order on this page.


The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The 2013 Medium-Term Oil Market Report evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil system by 2018 based on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants.

This Report shows, in detailed but concise terms, why the ongoing North American hydrocarbon revolution is a “game changer”. The region’s expected contribution to supply growth, however impressive, is only part of the story: Crude quality, infrastructure requirements, current regulations, and the potential for replication elsewhere are bound to spark a chain reaction that will leave few links in the global oil supply chain unaffected.

While North America is expected to lead medium-term supply growth, the East-of- Suez region is in the lead on the demand side. Non-OECD oil demand, led by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards. Non-OECD economies are already home to over half global refining capacity. With that share only expected to grow by 2018, the non-OECD region will be firmly entrenched as the world’s largest crude importer.

These and other changes are carefully laid out in this Report, which also examines recent and future changes in global oil storage, shifts in OPEC production capacity and crude and product trade, and the consequences of the ongoing refinery construction boom in emerging markets and developing economies.

It is required reading for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil market and the global economy.

Table of Contents

Type: Studies
Subject: Climate Change ; Energy Policy ; Energy Projections ; Non-OECD Countries ; Oil

Take advantage of the above special pre-sale 10% reduction, which is valid until 12 November 2013.
The 10% pre-order discount is already included in the price on this page (135€ instead of 150€ for the paper copy). After 12 November, this publication will be sold at its regular cover price of €150 per paper copy and €120 for a PDF-1 user.

Special discounts:
- 30% discount for universities and non-profit organisations
- 50% discount for clients based in low income and lower middle income countries For your special discount to be set up please click on ASK FOR A DISCOUNT and follow the procedure. Please do not place your order before receiving your confirmation e-mail.

Please note that we also offer the "corporate/institutional package" and the "global corporate/institutional package" which are the options to make the PDF version of the book available to all employees. For more information, please contact us at weo@iea.org.


A new global energy landscape is emerging, resetting long-held expectations for our energy future. Incorporating these recent developments and world-class analysis, World Energy Outlook 2013 presents a full update of energy projections through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, climate change, economic development and universal access to modern energy services. Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, with more country-level detail than ever before.

This year World Energy Outlook also gives a special focus to topical energy sector issues:

- Redrawing the energy-climate map: the short-term measures that could keep the 2°C target within reach, and the extent to which low-carbon development could leave fossil-fuel investments stranded. Special report to be released 10 June.
- Energy in Brazil: how a vast and diverse resource base – from renewables to new offshore discoveries – can meet the growing needs of the Brazilian economy and open up new export markets.
- Oil supply, demand and trade: a fresh look at the economics and decline rates of different types of oil production around the world, the prospects for light tight oil inside and outside North America, along with new analysis of oil products and the refining sector.
- The implications for economic competitiveness of the changing energy map: what the major disparities in regional energy prices might mean for major energy-intensive industries and the broader impact on economic growth and household purchasing power.
- The global spread of unconventional gas supply, including the uptake of the IEA “Golden Rules” to address public concerns about the associated environmental and social impacts.
- The extent of fossil fuel subsidies in the Middle East and what their phase-out would do for oil export volumes and revenues in key producing countries.
- Energy trends in Southeast Asia, a region that is exerting a growing influence in the global energy system. Special report to be released 23 September.

The World Energy Outlook is recognised as the most authoritative source of strategic analysis of global energy markets. It is regularly used as input to the development of government policies and business strategies and raises public awareness of the key energy and environmental challenges the world is facing.

Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Studies
Subject: Climate Change ; Electricity ; Energy Policy ; Technology

After experiencing a historic drop in 2009, electricity generation reached a record high in 2010, confirming the close linkage between economic growth and electricity usage. Unfortunately, CO2 emissions from electricity have also resumed their growth: Electricity remains the single-largest source of CO2 emissions from energy, with 11.7 billion tonnes of CO2 released in 2010. The imperative to “decarbonise” electricity and improve end-use efficiency remains essential to the global fight against climate change.

The IEA’s Electricity in a Climate-Constrained World provides an authoritative resource on progress to date in this area, including statistics related to CO2 and the electricity sector across ten regions of the world (supply, end-use and capacity additions). It also presents topical analyses on the challenge of rapidly curbing CO2 emissions from electricity. Looking at policy instruments, it focuses on emissions trading in China, using energy efficiency to manage electricity supply crises and combining policy instruments for effective CO2 reductions. On regulatory issues, it asks whether deregulation can deliver decarbonisation and assesses the role of state-owned enterprises in emerging economies. And from technology perspectives, it explores the rise of new end-uses, the role of electricity storage, biomass use in Brazil, and the potential of carbon capture and storage for ‘negative emissions’ electricity supply.

Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Studies
Subject: Coal ; Energy Projections ; Energy Security

The Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 provides IEA forecasts on coal markets for the coming five years as well as an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global coal demand, supply and trade. The annual report shows that while coal continues to be a growing source of primary energy worldwide, its future is increasingly linked to non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, and to the rise of natural gas.

The international coal market is experiencing dynamic changes. In 2011, China alone accounted for more than three-quarters of incremental coal production, while domestic consumption was more than three times that of global trade. Low gas prices associated with the shale gas revolution caused a marked decrease in coal use in the United States, the world’s second-largest consumer. This led US thermal coal producers to seek other markets, which resulted in an oversupply of coal in Europe and a significant gas-to-coal switch. Meanwhile, China overtook Japan as the largest importer of coal, and Indonesia overtook Australia as the world’s largest exporter on a tonnage basis.

The report examines the pronounced role the Chinese and Indian economies will exert on the international coal trade through 2017. In the report’s Base Case Scenario, China accounts for over half of global consumption from 2014, and India surpasses the United States as the world’s second-largest consumer of coal in 2017. The report also offers a Chinese Slowdown Case, a hypothetical scenario which shows that even if Chinese GDP growth slowed to 4.6% average over the period, the country’s coal consumption would continue to grow.

Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Studies
Subject: Climate Change ; Energy Efficiency ; Energy Projections ; Oil

Special discounts:
- 30% discount for universities and non-profit organisations
- 50% discount for clients based in low income and lower middle income countries For your special discount to be set up please click on ASK FOR A DISCOUNT and follow the procedure. Please do not place your order before receiving your confirmation e-mail.

Please note that we also offer the option of “corporate/institutional package” which provides the opportunity to offer the WEO-2012 PDF on your intranet so that your entire team will be able to simultaneously access all aspects of the WEO-2012. For more information, please contact us at weo@iea.org.


Industry and government decision-makers and others with a stake in the energy sector all need WEO-2012. It presents authoritative projections of energy trends through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, environmental sustainability and economic development.

Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, together with an update on climate change issues. Global energy demand, production, trade, investment and carbon dioxide emissions are broken down by region or country, by fuel and by sector.

Special strategic analyses cover:

• What unlocking the purely economic potential for energy efficiency could do, country by country and sector by sector, for energy markets, the economy and the environment.
• The Iraqi energy sector, examining both its importance in satisfying the country’s own needs and its crucial role in meeting global oil and gas demand.
• The water-energy nexus, as water resources become increasingly stressed and access more contentious.
• Measures of progress towards providing universal access to modern energy services.

There are many uncertainties, but many decisions cannot wait. The insights of WEO-2012 are invaluable to those who must shape our energy future.


WEO-2012 purchasers will receive link, user ID and password enabling to download the published Annex A Tables for Scenario Projections from the World Energy Outlook 2012 Excel format.

Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Studies
Subject: Electricity ; Energy Projections ; Renewable Energy ; Statistics

Renewable energy has emerged as a significant source in the global energy mix, accounting for around a fifth of worldwide electricity production. Much of this success has stemmed from economic incentives and significant policy effort by countries, particularly those in the OECD. Massive investment has taken place on a global scale, with costs for most technologies falling steadily. As a result, renewable energy technologies are becoming more economically attractive in an increasing range of countries and circumstances, with China, India and Brazil emerging as leaders in deployment.

While renewable energy has been the fastest growing sector of the energy mix in percentage terms, its continued growth will depend upon the evolution of policy and market frameworks. Further technology development, grid and system integration issues and the availability of finance will also weigh as key variables.

This new annual IEA publication, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012, provides a key benchmark, assessing the current state of play of renewable energy, identifying the main drivers and barriers to deployment and projecting renewable energy electricity capacity and generation through 2017. Starting with an in-depth analysis of key country-level markets, which represent 80% of renewable electricity generation today, the report examines the prospects for renewable energy finance and provides a global outlook for each renewable electricity technology. The report analyses enablers and barriers to renewable energy deployment in detail, examining larger electricity market issues that have implications for renewable development, including country-level demand projections, anticipated changes in conventional generating capacity and power system integration.

Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Studies
Subject: Climate Change ; Energy Projections ; Technology ; Energy Security

Special discounts:
- 30% discount for universities and non-profit organisations
- 50% discount for clients based in low income and lower middle income countries For your special discount to be set up please click on ASK FOR A DISCOUNT and follow the procedure. Please do not place your order before receiving your confirmation e-mail.

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) is the International Energy Agency’s most ambitious publication on new developments in energy technology. It demonstrates how technologies – from electric vehicles to smart grids – can make a decisive difference in achieving the objective of limiting the global temperature rise to 2°C and enhancing energy security.

ETP 2012 presents scenarios and strategies to 2050, with the aim of guiding decision makers on energy trends and what needs to be done to build a clean, secure and competitive energy future.

Clients who purchase ETP 2012 also get access to all figures (and the data behind them) in electronic format, downloadable from the IEA website.

ETP 2012 shows:

• Current progress on clean energy deployment, and what can be done to accelerate it

• How energy security and low carbon energy are linked

• How energy systems will become more complex in the future, why systems integration is beneficial and how it can be achieved

• How demand for heating and cooling will evolve dramatically and which solutions will satisfy it

• Why flexible electricity systems are increasingly important, and how a system with smarter grids, energy storage and flexible generation can work

• Why hydrogen could play a big role in the energy system of the future

• Why fossil fuels will not disappear but will see their roles change, and what it means for the energy system as a whole

• What is needed to realise the potential of carbon capture and storage (CCS)

• Whether available technologies can allow the world to have zero energy related emissions by 2075 – which seems a necessary condition for the world to meet the 2°C target

Global scenarios to 2050 are the backbone of ETP, and the 2012 edition features detailed scenarios for nine world regions.

Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Studies
Subject: Energy Projections ; Natural Gas ; Non-OECD Countries ; Statistics

With ample recoverable resources, natural gas seems destined for a bright future. It nevertheless faces many challenges to increase its share in the primary energy mix, including insufficient upstream development, inadequate pricing structure, competition from other fuels, and geopolitical issues.

The new IEA Medium-Term Gas Market Report reviews how gas markets managed the challenges of 2011, from the consequences of the Fukushima incident to the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa to a further deteriorating economy. It gives detailed gas supply, demand and trade forecasts up to 2017, by region as well as for key countries, while investigating many of today’s crucial questions:

• Will regional gas markets diverge further or will the shale gas revolution spread worldwide?
• Will North America become a significant LNG exporter?
• Can China meet its goal of doubling gas consumption in four years?
• Will natural gas replace nuclear energy in key OECD member countries?
• Can gas finally overtake coal in the US power sector?
• Can a spot price emerge in Asia?

Amid a fragile economy and widely diverging regional gas prices, the report provides an in-depth look at future changes in trade patterns as markets absorb a second wave of LNG supply. The Medium-Term Gas Market Report tests the upper limit of gas demand in the United States, analyses European gas consumption’s struggle to recover, and assesses the potential of new suppliers.

Press Release
Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Studies
Subject: Climate Change ; Energy Policy ; Oil ; Renewable Energy

FREE DOWNLOAD: World Energy Outlook 2010


The world appears to be emerging from the worst economic crisis in decades. Many countries have made pledges under the Copenhagen Accord to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Commitments have also been made by the G-20 and APEC to phase out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies. Are we, at last, on the path to a secure, reliable and environmentally sustainable energy system?

Updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and region by region to 2035 are provided in the 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). It includes, for the first time, a new scenario that anticipates future actions by governments to meet the commitments they have made to tackle climate change and growing energy insecurity.

WEO-2010 shows:

- what more must be done and spent to achieve the goal of the Copenhagen Accord to limit the global temperature increase to 2°C and how these actions would impact on oil markets;
- how emerging economies – led by China and India – will increasingly shape the global energy landscape;
- what role renewables can play in a clean and secure energy future;
- what removing fossil-fuel subsidies would mean for energy markets, climate change and state budgets;
- the trends in Caspian energy markets and the implications for global energy supply;
- the prospects for unconventional oil; and
- how to give the entire global population access to modern energy services.

With extensive data, projections and analysis, WEO-2010 provides invaluable insights into how the energy system could evolve over the next quarter of a century. The book is essential reading for anyone with a stake in the energy sector.