Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Studies
Subject: Oil

Subscribers to the monthly Oil Market Report get free access to the PDF version of this publication. You can subscribe to the Oil Market Report through the following link: http://www.iea.org/w/omrss/default.aspx
To purchase the Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013 separately please place your order on this page.


The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The 2013 Medium-Term Oil Market Report evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil system by 2018 based on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants.

This Report shows, in detailed but concise terms, why the ongoing North American hydrocarbon revolution is a “game changer”. The region’s expected contribution to supply growth, however impressive, is only part of the story: Crude quality, infrastructure requirements, current regulations, and the potential for replication elsewhere are bound to spark a chain reaction that will leave few links in the global oil supply chain unaffected.

While North America is expected to lead medium-term supply growth, the East-of- Suez region is in the lead on the demand side. Non-OECD oil demand, led by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards. Non-OECD economies are already home to over half global refining capacity. With that share only expected to grow by 2018, the non-OECD region will be firmly entrenched as the world’s largest crude importer.

These and other changes are carefully laid out in this Report, which also examines recent and future changes in global oil storage, shifts in OPEC production capacity and crude and product trade, and the consequences of the ongoing refinery construction boom in emerging markets and developing economies.

It is required reading for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil market and the global economy.

Table of Contents

Type: Studies
Subject: Climate Change ; Energy Policy ; Energy Projections ; Non-OECD Countries ; Oil

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The 10% pre-order discount is already included in the price on this page (135€ instead of 150€ for the paper copy). After 12 November, this publication will be sold at its regular cover price of €150 per paper copy and €120 for a PDF-1 user.

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A new global energy landscape is emerging, resetting long-held expectations for our energy future. Incorporating these recent developments and world-class analysis, World Energy Outlook 2013 presents a full update of energy projections through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, climate change, economic development and universal access to modern energy services. Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, with more country-level detail than ever before.

This year World Energy Outlook also gives a special focus to topical energy sector issues:

- Redrawing the energy-climate map: the short-term measures that could keep the 2°C target within reach, and the extent to which low-carbon development could leave fossil-fuel investments stranded. Special report to be released 10 June.
- Energy in Brazil: how a vast and diverse resource base – from renewables to new offshore discoveries – can meet the growing needs of the Brazilian economy and open up new export markets.
- Oil supply, demand and trade: a fresh look at the economics and decline rates of different types of oil production around the world, the prospects for light tight oil inside and outside North America, along with new analysis of oil products and the refining sector.
- The implications for economic competitiveness of the changing energy map: what the major disparities in regional energy prices might mean for major energy-intensive industries and the broader impact on economic growth and household purchasing power.
- The global spread of unconventional gas supply, including the uptake of the IEA “Golden Rules” to address public concerns about the associated environmental and social impacts.
- The extent of fossil fuel subsidies in the Middle East and what their phase-out would do for oil export volumes and revenues in key producing countries.
- Energy trends in Southeast Asia, a region that is exerting a growing influence in the global energy system. Special report to be released 23 September.

The World Energy Outlook is recognised as the most authoritative source of strategic analysis of global energy markets. It is regularly used as input to the development of government policies and business strategies and raises public awareness of the key energy and environmental challenges the world is facing.

Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Studies
Subject: Climate Change ; Electricity ; Energy Policy ; Technology

After experiencing a historic drop in 2009, electricity generation reached a record high in 2010, confirming the close linkage between economic growth and electricity usage. Unfortunately, CO2 emissions from electricity have also resumed their growth: Electricity remains the single-largest source of CO2 emissions from energy, with 11.7 billion tonnes of CO2 released in 2010. The imperative to “decarbonise” electricity and improve end-use efficiency remains essential to the global fight against climate change.

The IEA’s Electricity in a Climate-Constrained World provides an authoritative resource on progress to date in this area, including statistics related to CO2 and the electricity sector across ten regions of the world (supply, end-use and capacity additions). It also presents topical analyses on the challenge of rapidly curbing CO2 emissions from electricity. Looking at policy instruments, it focuses on emissions trading in China, using energy efficiency to manage electricity supply crises and combining policy instruments for effective CO2 reductions. On regulatory issues, it asks whether deregulation can deliver decarbonisation and assesses the role of state-owned enterprises in emerging economies. And from technology perspectives, it explores the rise of new end-uses, the role of electricity storage, biomass use in Brazil, and the potential of carbon capture and storage for ‘negative emissions’ electricity supply.

Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Country Reviews
Subject: Electricity ; Energy Policy ; Renewable Energy ; Technology ; Energy Security

Download here the free chapter on the Swedish energy policy framework

Sweden has made progress in recent years towards a more secure, sustainable energy future. The Scandinavian nation already has an almost carbon-free electricity supply and has phased out oil use in residential and power sectors. It is increasingly integrated within the Nordic and Baltic electricity markets, and its joint renewable electricity certificate market with Norway offers a unique model for other countries.

Now Sweden must take concrete steps to realise its vision of a fossil-fuel-independent vehicle fleet by 2030 and no net greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050. Although Sweden has decided to allow the replacement of its existing nuclear reactors, further emission reductions will come at a higher cost and require technology change. This means Sweden will need to carefully evaluate the most cost-effective pathways for its transition to a low-carbon economy.

Sweden has a high energy-intensity level, which requires greater energy efficiency in industry, buildings, heat and transport. A decarbonisation vision should be mapped out for each industry sector. Starting with transport, Sweden must specify how it will wean its vehicle fleet from fossil fuels by 2030.

Sweden’s industry lead in smart grids is an asset. Sweden should scale up investment in clean energy technologies. As all Nordic countries decarbonise, cost-effective regional solutions can control consumers’ costs. The large-scale deployment of renewable and energy technologies in a common Northern European energy market can drive decarbonisation without comprising competitiveness, security of supply and affordability.

This review analyses the energy-policy challenges currently facing Sweden, and provides studies and recommendations for each sector.

Table of Contents
Summary

Type: Studies
Subject: Coal ; Energy Projections ; Energy Security

The Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 provides IEA forecasts on coal markets for the coming five years as well as an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global coal demand, supply and trade. The annual report shows that while coal continues to be a growing source of primary energy worldwide, its future is increasingly linked to non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, and to the rise of natural gas.

The international coal market is experiencing dynamic changes. In 2011, China alone accounted for more than three-quarters of incremental coal production, while domestic consumption was more than three times that of global trade. Low gas prices associated with the shale gas revolution caused a marked decrease in coal use in the United States, the world’s second-largest consumer. This led US thermal coal producers to seek other markets, which resulted in an oversupply of coal in Europe and a significant gas-to-coal switch. Meanwhile, China overtook Japan as the largest importer of coal, and Indonesia overtook Australia as the world’s largest exporter on a tonnage basis.

The report examines the pronounced role the Chinese and Indian economies will exert on the international coal trade through 2017. In the report’s Base Case Scenario, China accounts for over half of global consumption from 2014, and India surpasses the United States as the world’s second-largest consumer of coal in 2017. The report also offers a Chinese Slowdown Case, a hypothetical scenario which shows that even if Chinese GDP growth slowed to 4.6% average over the period, the country’s coal consumption would continue to grow.